Inflation: It's meaning, causes and effects

•  What is Inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. Central banks attempt to limit inflation, and avoid deflation, in order to keep the economy running smoothly. In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services.

Because the term inflation is such a generic term used in many contexts, there is no commonly accepted definition of inflation, nor is there a common agreement on what constitutes acceptable levels of inflation, bad inflation, or hyperinflation.

Generally it can be said that inflation is a measure of a general increase of the price level in an economy, as represented typically by an inclusive price index, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The term indicates many individual prices rising together rather than one or two isolated prices, such as the price of gasoline in an otherwise calm price environment. 

• Some Types of Inflation:

When the rise in prices is very low like that of a snail or creeper, is called Creeping Inflation. Running inflation has inflation rate between 8-10 %. A sense of urgency needs to be shown in controlling the running inflation. Hyper Inflation, Latin American countries like Argentina and Brazil had inflation rates of 50 to 700 percent per year in the between 1970 and 1980. Many developed and industrialized countries like Italy and Japan still do. Pricing Power administered price inflation. When the business houses and industries decide to increase the price of their respective goods and services to increase their profit margins.

• Causes of Inflation:

Historically, a great deal of economic literature was concerned with the question of what causes inflation and what effect it has. There were different schools of thought as to the causes of inflation. Most can be divided into two broad areas: quality theories of inflation and quantity theories of inflation. The quality theory of inflation rests on the expectation of a seller accepting currency to be able to exchange that currency at a later time for goods that are desirable as a buyer. The quantity theory of inflation rests on the quantity equation of money that relates the money supply, its velocity and the nominal values of exchanges. Adam Smith and David Hume proposed a quantity theory of inflation for money, and a quality theory of inflation for production.

Currently, the quantity theory of money is widely accepted as an accurate model of inflation in the long run. Consequently, there is now broad agreement among economists that in the long run, the inflation rate is essentially dependent on the growth rate of money supply relative to the growth of the economy. However, in the short and medium term inflation may be affected by supply and demand pressures in the economy, and influenced by the relative elasticity of wages, prices and interest rates. The question of whether the short-term effects last long enough to be important is the central topic of debate between monetarist and Keynesian economists. In monetarism prices and wages adjust quickly enough to make other factors merely marginal behavior on a general trend-line. In the Keynesian view, prices and wages adjust at different rates, and these differences have enough effects on real output to be "long term" in the view of people in an economy.

Keynesian View:

Keynesian economics proposes that changes in money supply do not directly affect prices, and that visible inflation is the result of pressures in the economy expressing themselves in prices.

There are three major types of inflation, as part of what Robert J. Gordon calls the "triangle model”

• Demand-pull inflation is caused by increases in aggregate demand due to increased private and government spending, etc. Demand inflation encourages economic growth since the excess demand and favorable market conditions will stimulate investment and expansion.

• Cost-push inflation, also called "supply shock inflation," is caused by a drop in aggregate supply (potential output). This may be due to natural disasters, or increased prices of inputs. For example, a sudden decrease in the supply of oil, leading to increased oil prices, can cause cost-push inflation. Producers for whom oil is a part of their costs could then pass this on to consumers in the form of increased prices. Another example stems from unexpectedly high Insured losses, either legitimate (catastrophes) or fraudulent (which might be particularly prevalent in times of recession).

• Built-in inflation is induced by adaptive expectations, and is often linked to the "price/wage spiral". It involves workers trying to keep their wages up with prices (above the rate of inflation), and firms passing these higher labor costs on to their customers as higher prices, leading to a 'vicious circle'. Built-in inflation reflects events in the past, and so might be seen as hangover inflation.

Demand-pull theory states that inflation accelerates when aggregate demand increases beyond the ability of the economy to produce (its potential output). Hence, any factor that increases aggregate demand can cause inflation. However, in the long run, aggregate demand can be held above productive capacity only by increasing the quantity of money in circulation faster than the real growth rate of the economy. Another (although much less common) cause can be a rapid decline in the demand for money, as happened in Europe during the Black Death, or in the Japanese occupied territories just before the defeat of Japan in 1945.

The effect of money on inflation is most obvious when governments finance spending in a crisis, such as a civil war, by printing money excessively. This sometimes leads to hyperinflation, a condition where prices can double in a month or less. Money supply is also thought to play a major role in determining moderate levels of inflation, although there are differences of opinion on how important it is. For example, Monetarist economists believe that the link is very strong; Keynesian economists, by contrast, typically emphasize the role of aggregate demand in the economy rather than the money supply in determining inflation. That is, for Keynesians, the money supply is only one determinant of aggregate demand.

Some Keynesian economists also disagree with the notion that central banks fully control the money supply, arguing that central banks have little control, since the money supply adapts to the demand for bank credit issued by commercial banks. This is known as the theory of endogenous money, and has been advocated strongly by post-Keynesians as far back as the 1960s. It has today become a central focus of Taylor rule advocates. This position is not universally accepted – banks create money by making loans, but the aggregate volume of these loans diminishes as real interest rates increase. Thus, central banks can influence the money supply by making money cheaper or more expensive, thus increasing or decreasing its production.

A fundamental concept in inflation analysis is the relationship between inflation and unemployment, called the Phillips curve. This model suggests that there is a trade-off between price stability and employment. Therefore, some level of inflation could be considered desirable in order to minimize unemployment. The Phillips curve model described the U.S. experience well in the 1960s but failed to describe the combination of rising inflation and economic stagnation (sometimes referred to as stagflation) experienced in the 1970s.

Thus, modern macroeconomics describes inflation using a Phillips curve that shifts (so the trade-off between inflation and unemployment changes) because of such matters as supply shocks and inflation becoming built into the normal workings of the economy. The former refers to such events as the oil shocks of the 1970s, while the latter refers to the price/wage spiral and inflationary expectations implying that the economy "normally" suffers from inflation. Thus, the Phillips curve represents only the demand-pull component of the triangle model.

Another concept of note is the potential output (sometimes called the "natural gross domestic product"), a level of GDP, where the economy is at its optimal level of production given institutional and natural constraints. (This level of output corresponds to the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, NAIRU, or the "natural" rate of unemployment or the full-employment unemployment rate.) If GDP exceeds its potential (and unemployment is below the NAIRU), the theory says that inflation will accelerate as suppliers increase their prices and built-in inflation worsens. If GDP falls below its potential level (and unemployment is above the NAIRU), inflation will decelerate as suppliers attempt to fill excess capacity, cutting prices and undermining built-in inflation.

However, one problem with this theory for policy-making purposes is that the exact level of potential output (and of the NAIRU) is generally unknown and tends to change over time. Inflation also seems to act in an asymmetric way, rising more quickly than it falls. Worse, it can change because of policy: for example, high unemployment under British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher might have led to a rise in the NAIRU (and a fall in potential) because many of the unemployed found themselves as structurally unemployed, unable to find jobs that fit their skills. A rise in structural unemployment implies that a smaller percentage of the labor force can find jobs at the NAIRU, where the economy avoids crossing the threshold into the realm of accelerating inflation.

Unemployment:

A connection between inflation and unemployment has been drawn since the emergence of large scale unemployment in the 19th century, and connections continue to be drawn today. However, the unemployment rate generally only affects inflation in the short-term but not the long-term. In the long term, the velocity of money supply measures such as the MZM ("Money Zero Maturity," representing cash and equivalent demand deposits) velocity is far more predictive of inflation than low unemployment.

In Marxian economics, the unemployed serve as a reserve army of labor, which restrain wage inflation. In the 20th century, similar concepts in Keynesian economics include the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) and the Phillips curve.

During the Great Depression, the classical theory attributed mass unemployment to high and rigid real wages.

To Keynes, the determination of wages was more complicated. First, he argued that it is not real but nominal wages that are set in negotiations between employers and workers, as opposed to a barter relationship. Second, nominal wage cuts would be difficult to put into effect because of laws and wage contracts. Even classical economists admitted that these exist; unlike Keynes, they advocated abolishing minimum wages, unions, and long-term contracts, increasing labour market flexibility. However, to Keynes, people will resist nominal wage reductions, even without unions, until they see other wages falling and a general fall of prices.

Keynes rejected the idea that cutting wages would cure recessions. He examined the explanations for this idea and found them all faulty. He also considered the most likely consequences of cutting wages in recessions, under various different circumstances. He concluded that such wage cutting would be more likely to make recessions worse rather than better.

Further, if wages and prices were falling, people would start to expect them to fall. This could make the economy spiral downward as those who had money would simply wait as falling prices made it more valuable – rather than spending. As Irving Fisher argued in 1933, in his Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, deflation (falling prices) can make a depression deeper as falling prices and wages made pre-existing nominal debts more valuable in real terms.

• Inflation Thresholds:

Table 1 shows somewhat arbitrary thresholds. Other economists would have thresholds a little more strident than this, yet others a little looser. When you look at Table 1 it is clear that a nominal amount of inflation, typically less than 3%, is accepted and might even be good for the economy.1 But any sustained level above 2.5% or 3% will be seen as a potential problem, and the higher the rate, the more serious and dangerous the problem. Part of the reason for this is because once inflation moves up into the high single-digit range and then double-digit range, it begins to self-compound into a higher rate. In other words, once it reaches a certain rate, it sets in motion a series of forces that tend to move it automatically to a higher rate (explained later). More bluntly, a 12% inflation will automatically become a 15% inflation and then a 20% inflation if not dealt with using severe and relentless anti-inflation policies. Once inflation moves above the 20% range, lessons from history tells us that the tendency to self-compound is so great that the inflation becomes explosive and potentially ruinous to an economy.

• Controlling Inflation:

Monetary Policy:

Governments and central banks primarily use monetary policy to control inflation. Central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve increase the interest rate, slow or stop the growth of the money supply, and reduce the money supply. Some banks have a symmetrical inflation target while others only control inflation when it rises above a target, whether express or implied.

Most central banks are tasked with keeping their inter-bank lending rates at low levels, normally to a target annual rate of about 2% to 3%, and within a targeted annual inflation range of about 2% to 6%. Central bankers target a low inflation rate because they believe deflation endangers the economy.

Higher interest rates reduce the amount of money because fewer people seek loans, and loans are usually made with new money. When banks make loans, they usually first create new money, then lend it. A central bank usually creates money lent to a national government. Therefore, when a person pays back a loan, the bank destroys the money and the quantity of money falls. In the early 1980s, when the federal funds rate exceeded 15 percent, the quantity of Federal Reserve dollars fell 8.1 percent, from $8.6 trillion down to $7.9 trillion.

Monetarists emphasize a steady growth rate of money and use monetary policy to control inflation by increasing interest rates and slowing the rise in the money supply. Keynesians emphasize reducing aggregate demand during economic expansions and increasing demand during recessions to keep inflation stable. Control of aggregate demand can be achieved using both monetary policy and fiscal policy (increased taxation or reduced government spending to reduce demand).

Fixed Exchange Rates:

Under a fixed exchange rate currency regime, a country's currency is tied in value to another single currency or to a basket of other currencies (or sometimes to another measure of value, such as gold). A fixed exchange rate is usually used to stabilize the value of a currency, vis-a-vis the currency it is pegged to. It can also be used as a means to control inflation. However, as the value of the reference currency rises and falls, so does the currency pegged to it. This essentially means that the inflation rate in the fixed exchange rate country is determined by the inflation rate of the country the currency is pegged to. In addition, a fixed exchange rate prevents a government from using domestic monetary policy in order to achieve macroeconomic stability.

Under the Bretton Woods agreement, most countries around the world had currencies that were fixed to the US dollar. This limited inflation in those countries, but also exposed them to the danger of speculative attacks. After the Bretton Woods agreement broke down in the early 1970s, countries gradually turned to floating exchange rates. However, in the later part of the 20th century, some countries reverted to a fixed exchange rate as part of an attempt to control inflation. This policy of using a fixed exchange rate to control inflation was used in many countries in South America in the later part of the 20th century (e.g. Argentina (1991–2002), Bolivia, Brazil, and Chile).

Gold Standard:

The gold standard is a monetary system in which a region's common media of exchange are paper notes that are normally freely convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold. The standard specifies how the gold backing would be implemented, including the amount of specie per currency unit. The currency itself has no innate value, but is accepted by traders because it can be redeemed for the equivalent specie. A U.S. silver certificate, for example, could be redeemed for an actual piece of silver.

The gold standard was partially abandoned via the international adoption of the Bretton Woods System. Under this system all other major currencies were tied at fixed rates to the dollar, which itself was tied to gold at the rate of $35 per ounce. The Bretton Woods system broke down in 1971, causing most countries to switch to fiat money – money backed only by the laws of the country.

Under a gold standard, the long term rate of inflation (or deflation) would be determined by the growth rate of the supply of gold relative to total output. Critics argue that this will cause arbitrary fluctuations in the inflation rate, and that monetary policy would essentially be determined by gold mining.

Wages and Price Control:

Another method attempted in the past have been wage and price controls ("incomes policies"). Wage and price controls have been successful in wartime environments in combination with rationing. However, their use in other contexts is far more mixed. Notable failures of their use include the 1972 imposition of wage and price controls by Richard Nixon. More successful examples include the Prices and Incomes Accord in Australia and the Wassenaar Agreement in the Netherlands.

In general, wage and price controls are regarded as a temporary and exceptional measure, only effective when coupled with policies designed to reduce the underlying causes of inflation during the wage and price control regime, for example, winning the war being fought. They often have perverse effects, due to the distorted signals they send to the market. Artificially low prices often cause rationing and shortages and discourage future investment, resulting in yet further shortages. The usual economic analysis is that any product or service that is under-priced is over-consumed. For example, if the official price of bread is too low, there will be too little bread at official prices, and too little investment in bread making by the market to satisfy future needs, thereby exacerbating the problem in the long term.

Temporary controls may complement a recession as a way to fight inflation: the controls make the recession more efficient as a way to fight inflation (reducing the need to increase unemployment), while the recession prevents the kinds of distortions that controls cause when demand is high. However, in general the advice of economists is not to impose price controls but to liberalize prices by assuming that the economy will adjust and abandon unprofitable economic activity. The lower activity will place fewer demands on whatever commodities were driving inflation, whether labor or resources, and inflation will fall with total economic output. This often produces a severe recession, as productive capacity is reallocated and is thus often very unpopular with the people whose livelihoods are destroyed.

Stimulating Economic Growth:

If economic growth matches the growth of the money supply, inflation should not occur when all else is equal. A large variety of factors can affect the rate of both. For example, investment in market production, infrastructure, education, and preventative health care can all grow an economy in greater amounts than the investment spending.

Cost-of-living Allowance:

The real purchasing-power of fixed payments is eroded by inflation unless they are inflation-adjusted to keep their real values constant. In many countries, employment contracts, pension benefits, and government entitlements (such as social security) are tied to a cost-of-living index, typically to the consumer price index. A cost-of-living allowance (COLA) adjusts salaries based on changes in a cost-of-living index. It does not control inflation, but rather seeks to mitigate the consequences of inflation for those on fixed incomes. Salaries are typically adjusted annually in low inflation economies. During hyperinflation they are adjusted more often. They may also be tied to a cost-of-living index that varies by geographic location if the employee moves.

Annual escalation clauses in employment contracts can specify retroactive or future percentage increases in worker pay which are not tied to any index. These negotiated increases in pay are colloquially referred to as cost-of-living adjustments ("COLAs") or cost-of-living increases because of their similarity to increases tied to externally determined indexes.

• Inflation Trend in Pakistan:

The latest figures of SPI are for 24 April 2014. When compared to the prices of items in SPI basket from the one week before i.e. 17 April 2014,

• 7 items prices have increased while 17 items prices decreased in one week period.
• Following are the figures from “Monthly review on Price Indices” Mar 2014, Base 2007-2008.

• Economic Condition of Pakistan:

High inflation is contributing to:

• Increasing vulnerability and fall in real income of lower, middle and fixed income segments of the society.
• Uncertainty about future scenario of the business environment and instability of the financial system
• Erosion of business and investors’ confidence
• Slowing down of real economic activities
• Investment
• Economic growth
• Employment

Inflation Rate Year-Wise:

Inflation By Consumer Income Group:

Regional Inflation Trend:

Whole Price Index:

Pakistan's and Bangladesh's Inflation Rate:

• Conclusion:

Given the persistent downward trend in inflation over the last ten months, CPI inflation for the year 2012-13 is forecast-ed to hover around 8.0%. The availability of food items and any adverse external hike in prices. Seems unlikely, therefore, the upside risk to inflation for one remainder of FY13 is minimal. However the revision of any energy tariffs and imposition of taxes may pose risk to inflation beyond FY13. Food supply at affordable price is the focal point of food security policy of Pakistan and the four dimensions of food security also include food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food stability which have always been on the high agenda of food policy. It is hoped that implementations of the policy in letter and spirit will to further contain the inflation and ensure secure food environment for the growing population.

• Some Recommendations:

1. Proper taxation system.
2. Increase export.
3. Increase foreign reserves.
4. Control corruption.
5. Devaluation of money.
6. Produce Electricity.
7. Broaden tax collection.